
More bad news for Kemi Badenoch as the Tory leader faces fresh defections to Reform. Nigel Farage welcomed three former Conservative MPs this week, including former party chairman Jonathan Gullis. Joining the insurgent party – which remains on course to win the next election – Gullis said the Conservative Party had "lost touch with the people it was meant to serve".
Former Bolton MP, Chris Green, and former Grimsby MP, Lia Nici, join Gullis. All three follow Danny Kruger, the only current sitting Tory MP to join Reform so far. Gullis cited immigration and net zero as concerns he has. Yet why did Gullis and co wait this long to make the move? It's not as if the Tories had a stellar record on immigration and net zero while in office.
This comes as Nigel Farage warned voters not to trust under-fire Badenoch. Writing in the Telegraph, Farage argued: “Do not allow the failed party of the past to reinvent themselves as the supposed solution to the problems that they created in the first place.”
Farage is correct to draw votes' attention to Tory hypocrisy and a track record of failure on everything from record-breaking immigration to sky-high debt.
But that makes welcoming more Tories -especially former MPs – into the party a double-edged sword.
Yes, it is a propaganda victory against Badenoch. But – aside from the fact defections would have more bite if they came from sitting MPs like Kruger – Reform won't want to be seen as a dumping ground for former Conservatives.
Putting aside the perception some might be doing this to resurrect or salvage their political careers, Reform's whole selling point is it represents a break from a failed uniparty past.
That selling point could be undermined if Reform gets stuffed with former Tory MPs. For now, defections are still a propaganda coup.
Defections of sitting Conservative MPs would be an even bigger coup for Reform. Meanwhile, Reform cannot afford momentum loss as it heads towards the May local elections. As Opposition leader, Badenoch got extra airtime over the Budget.
That may offer a short-term boost for the Tories, demonstrating the Conservatives still have more manpower in Parliament. Moreover – to be assured of a comfortable majority – Reform really needs to be polling nearer 40% than 30%.
That means peeling off roughly half of what remains of Tory supporters. More former Tories joining Reform would help that effort and certainly further undermine Badenoch's authority.
But there will come a point where an asset becomes a liability given Reform's objective to put plenty of clear blue water between itself and a failed Conservative Party.