A reverse takeover of the Conservative Party is the only 'merger' Reform leader Nigel Farage said he would accept amid reports of a merger or deal between the two parties. His Tory counterpart, Kemi Badenoch, similarly scoffed at the idea, although reports suggest her potential successor – Robert Jenrick – is more open to it. If this was mooted or planted by a donor, one can understand why. A rich tycoon backing Reform, and perhaps in the past the Conservatives, won't want the two parties to split the Centre-Right vote and give Sir Keir Starmer and co another five years in office.
Still, Farage will be wary of any deal with a party which Reform is looking to supplant and which the latter blames so much of the country's problems on. It would be an awkward sell to voters that – having rubbished the Tories so much – Reform is cooking up a deal with what it sees as the party of big immigration and big debt.
For the Tories, the downsides are even greater. Given the polling, if a voter is told a vote for the Conservative Party is a vote for a pact with Reform, then why not vote Reform?
This makes recent Tory defections to Farage's party – including three former MPs in the last few days – a double-edged sword. Yes, this definitely represents a coup against Badenoch. But Reform cannot afford to look like a dumping ground for former Conservatives and all their baggage.
Then there is the question of whether Reform really needs a deal. True, on current polling Reform could still find itself just shy of an outright Commons majority (i.e. 326 MPs out of 650), the chances of which go way up in the event of mass tactical voting.
That might make the case for a post-election deal with Farage as PM (combined, on almost every forecast, Reform and the Tories would have enough seats to form a government).
But would current polling make the case for a pre-election deal? Moreover, Reform's ambition – given time and momentum are on its side - should surely be to peel more voters away from the Conservatives.
I'd wager any bounce the Tories achieved post-Budget will never compensate for the mistrust and ill-will built over fourteen years of failure.
Yes, Reform perhaps needs to poll nearer 40% than 30% to feel confident of an outright majority. But is it so unfeasible for Reform to win over maybe half of remaining Tory voters and do just that before the next election?
We all know Reform and the Tories will be pragmatic – if needed – after any election. But a premature deal risks the goodwill Reform has among its base, but with little upside.
For the Conservatives, the downsides are even greater. Why vote Tory at all if you know you'll get a pact with Reform? One may as well vote for the real McCoy to begin with.
The dust will no doubt clear after May's local elections, but – for now at least – all is left to play for!
